Thursday, June 28, 2007
Energy stocks (OSX $266, E&P $496, XOI $1389) – Inventory data turned oil price and energy stocks yesterday, but oil service was only energy outperformer (S&P 500 +1.3%, E&P +1.3%, majors +0.4%, OSX +1.9%). Fickle market. With green screen yesterday, maybe group set to rally as month/quarter close out and people window dress? Easiest call is fundamentals matter more than several weeks/months ago, so keep close eye on them (and Q2 earnings).
Tuesday, June 26, 2007
Pickering comments: Energy stocks (OSX $265, E&P $504, XOI $1406) – Not pleasant yesterday. Energy stocks were 1-3% lower, even when Dow was +120 points as gas prices took another hit (closing down 2.7% to under $7/mcf). First time in recent trading that bulls willing to relinquish reins to softish datapoint(s). Watching this closely as rally-to-date has shrugged off what we consider to be meaningful gas market overhang.
Wednesday, June 20, 2007
Broad market rolled in the afternoon on a delayed reaction to a Bear Sterns hedge fund liquidation. Energy started off weaker than the broad market on crude inventory build and strong gasoline yields (presumably) and then extended its losses another 100 bps in the last hour and a half of trading in sympathy with the broader market selloff.
Energy stocks (OSX $262, E&P $515, XOI$1398) – Had to have one of those type days at some point. Notably, first time in many weeks that energy stocks reacted to poor fundamental datapoint (oil inventory / oil price). Group sold off hard before broad market then took it lower (closing on lows, energy down 2.5-3%, S&P 500 -1.4%). Says perhaps market trading sentiment shifts more toward neutral from full speed ahead. Still plenty of dip buyers out there though.
Energy stocks (OSX $262, E&P $515, XOI$1398) – Had to have one of those type days at some point. Notably, first time in many weeks that energy stocks reacted to poor fundamental datapoint (oil inventory / oil price). Group sold off hard before broad market then took it lower (closing on lows, energy down 2.5-3%, S&P 500 -1.4%). Says perhaps market trading sentiment shifts more toward neutral from full speed ahead. Still plenty of dip buyers out there though.
Monday, June 18, 2007
Thursday, June 14, 2007
Tuesday, June 12, 2007
Friday, June 8, 2007
Wednesday, June 6, 2007
Monday, June 4, 2007
Another strong day... XTO was the primary driver, buying D's assets and talking about an MLP. Strange development is a cyclone in the Middle East driving crude oil. Comments below from GS trader sickeningly bullish ->
The energy sector stole the spotlight once again yesterday as several E&P deals created a strong bid to nat gas and therefore a nice rally in Services and Drillers. Mega cap XOM was a lone underperformer yesterday, closing unched on the day, which we view as a positive seeing it generally points to the generalist community focusing on higher beta energy rather than "safe" energy exposure. We were active throughout the day for both vanilla and hedge customers mostly in red hot E&P and Pipeline names. Overall GS traders like the group and see another leg up in both the OSX & XOI, especially if sell side analysts continue to raise there 2007 avg crude prices before the end of Q2.
The energy sector stole the spotlight once again yesterday as several E&P deals created a strong bid to nat gas and therefore a nice rally in Services and Drillers. Mega cap XOM was a lone underperformer yesterday, closing unched on the day, which we view as a positive seeing it generally points to the generalist community focusing on higher beta energy rather than "safe" energy exposure. We were active throughout the day for both vanilla and hedge customers mostly in red hot E&P and Pipeline names. Overall GS traders like the group and see another leg up in both the OSX & XOI, especially if sell side analysts continue to raise there 2007 avg crude prices before the end of Q2.
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