DOE revised gasoline demand down monthly basis. Weekly demand comps were weakish. EIA 914 production data showed 2 bcf yoy growth... Stocks did not care, still finished down only about 1/2 a percent. HC very strong again up 3%. Tenaris got the antidumping ruling rescinded, Ole is probably going to bull the thing tomorrow or Monday. It was strong - up 3.7% which was cool.

Group started decently and only got stronger as the broad market closed 1% higher than its 2pm low to set an all time S&P record. Stable crude and gasoline didnt interfere with the stocks and July nat gas in its first day as the front month was up 3% to $7.96. Nat gas continues to deny explanation given invenories and weak-ish injection trends.

Crude was down almost 3% and the group acted decent (down 0.5%-1.0%) against that backdrop. It feels for lack of a better term that generalists want to buy the dip on these things as long as they don't imagine that the commodities are going to plummet unabated. 15-day moving averages still tenuously hold across most of the energy patch. Gasoline down a dime and June expires this week placing a strong driving season July in the front seat.

Market as a whole got clobbered. S&P down 0.9%. OIH down 2.45%. XLE down 1.83%. Crude down 2.4% as a VLO outage backed up WTI supplies while gasoline was strong on the same news with RBOB up 2.0%.

OIH diverged from E&P -> Up 0.8% vs XOP which was down 0.4%. Refiners reversed off morning highs to close on their lows. Real battle of opinion going on over refiners here.

Stocks are insane. Gasoline ripped on an outage or two, driving crude and then the stocks up 1-3% on a flat to down broad market day. Crude was up 4%. HC was a dog, so was TK with a downgrade at BofA.

Quiet sideways day after the Friday love fest. Adding a little TK, VLO, HC.

Ugly action today as most energy stocks close near or under their 15-day averages. In this market driven energy rally, they ignored super strong gasoline, modest weakness in nat gas and modest strength in crude. The emerging markets were awful. Is this the beginning of a real correction or just another short dip. One difference today was that the close was awful - at or near daily lows.

Stocks keep bouncing off their 15-days HARD. HAL is coming as an interesting stock from all sides -> chartists and fundamental guys alike. Adding to Tenaris and Hanover Compressor here. Getting away from paired book.

SUN whiffed on Philly downtime, we'll see how it acts. Bid down $4 to $73 or so. TSO also missed small. VLO still king! Made more than each in Q2, lowest stock price.

Medley noting that arch-hawk Netanyahu may move back into power in Israel.

Gorilla strength in the upside surpisers (RIG, UPL)..... Gasoline bounced off 2.20 support and broad market ripped taking most of the energy space ex. the earnings dippointers with it.

Stocks are bouncing hard off their 15-day moving averages. If this buy the dip mentality is going to end, it doesnt feel like its today.

Comments from IEA economist at OTC

HOUSTON (Dow Jones)--Citing a variety of factors that mitigate high prices inenergy-consuming nations, the chief economist for the International EnergyAgency said Tuesday that high prices are having a diminishing impact on energyconsumption. "We are going through a major structural change in which the role of pricewill be less and less," said Fatih Birol, chief economist for the IEA, aParis-based watchdog for energy-consuming nations.

From Jay S.

I'm in the camp of upside vs expectations to production but admit that it's a hard one. Evidence for stronger production = company growth targets/results, basis diffs in the Rockies, production/well may be flattening (can't get any worse), Independence Hub, increased drilling efficiencies as/if land fleet highgrades. Struggling with 914 results.

Story that gasoline prices hitting consumer spending. Little nervousness creeping in. Stocks not acting as great as expected on beat and getting creamed on small misses.

Refining utilization still stubbornly low. People think gasoline inventories will fall again tomorrow. Crisis mentality creeping into the media. People wondering what the net impact of refinery restarts is on gasoline vs. WTI. Refiners fundamentals still strong, but in a more fearful market how much can they hold?

Attack on vessel off coast of Nigeria this AM. Crude down small. Gasoline rolled down, spot still strong 2.40 vs near month 2.46.

Monday April 30th, 2007
EIA 914 data mixed - Jan revised up but still 0.6bcf/day lower than December. February = January. Big time reversal in the broad market around 1pm dragged energy down hard. Emerging markets in the red all day, much worse once the broad market started rolling over. Sellside commentary already calling for dip buyers. Remains to be seen (or not).